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V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
11/10/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 38Nagasaki Stadium City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki51%
×Draw25%
Ehime FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.65
Ehime FC
1.05

V-varen Nagasaki creates 57% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 123 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.65
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.13
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
76%
V-varen Nagasaki or Ehime FC
75%
Draw or Ehime FC
49%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
27%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
81%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
49%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
23%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
65%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
28%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
68%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
51%
level
25%
Ehime FC scores more
24%

V-varen Nagasaki at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Ehime FC

V-varen Nagasaki beat Ehime FC 5-2 in J2 League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Nagasaki Stadium City in Nagasaki.