Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ehime FC vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
3/20/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 5Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Ehime FC27%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.08
V-varen Nagasaki
1.50

V-varen Nagasaki creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 143 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
53%
Ehime FC or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
73%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
10%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
66%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
29%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
10%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
78%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
44%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
37%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ehime FC scores more
27%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
47%

V-varen Nagasaki at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ehime FC vs V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki beat Ehime FC 2-1 in J2 League on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium in Matsuyama.