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V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
M. Jonjić 89'
Y. Maruhashi 3'
8/19/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki33%
×Draw26%
Cerezo Osaka41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.23
Cerezo Osaka
1.39

Cerezo Osaka creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 151 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.21
Cerezo Osaka
1.23

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.54
Cerezo Osaka
1.25

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
59%
V-varen Nagasaki or Cerezo Osaka
74%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
67%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
14%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
71%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
35%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
13%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
75%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
40%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
45%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.21 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.23 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
33%
level
26%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
41%

Cerezo Osaka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Y. MaruhashiCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka · D
8.3

Match Events

3'
Y. Maruhashi↳ Souza
46'
Y. Omoto← R. iio
48'
Kenyu Sugimoto
57'
Toshiyuki Takagi
61'
Yuki Omoto
74'
M. Suzuki← T. Sawada
77'
K. Mizunuma← H. Kiyotake
86'
S. Yoneda← K. Nakamura
89'
M. Jonjić↳ Y. Maruhashi
90'
T. Fukumitsu← T. Takagi
90+2'
D. Akiyama← Souza

Possession

43%V-varen

Shots

9V-varen

Pass accuracy

50%V-varen

Statistics

V-varenCerezo
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots19
3Corners7
12Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots19
0On Target5
8Off Target7
1Blocked7
2Inside Box10
7Outside Box9
Passing
43%Possession57%
364Total Passes470
294Accurate Passes379
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

J1 League: V-varen Nagasaki 0–2 Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka beat V-varen Nagasaki 2-0 in J1 League on August 19, 2018.

Goals: Y. Maruhashi (3'), M. Jonjić (89').

Cerezo Osaka controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium in Isahaya.