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Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
K. Mizunuma 86'
Y. Maruhashi 37'
Y. Kakitani 30'
K. Nakamura 54'
5/5/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Osaka Nagai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cerezo Osaka48%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.52
V-varen Nagasaki
1.06

Cerezo Osaka creates 43% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.37
V-varen Nagasaki
1.04

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.09
V-varen Nagasaki
1.68

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
74%
Cerezo Osaka or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
52%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
24%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
78%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
45%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
20%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
65%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
29%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
64%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 142 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.37 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
48%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
26%

Cerezo Osaka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
T. TakagiCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka · M
8.0

Match Events

30'
Y. Kakitani↳ T. Takagi
37'
Y. Maruhashi
54'
K. Nakamura↳ R. iio
58'
Juanma← M. Suzuki
70'
Keita Nakamura
71'
Choi Kyu-Baek← D. Tagami
72'
K. Mizunuma← T. Fukumitsu
73'
K. Yamamura← Y. Kakitani
83'
B. Halloran← R. iio
86'
K. Mizunuma↳ T. Takagi
90'
E. Katayama← R. Matsuda

Possession

50%Cerezo

Shots

11Cerezo

Pass accuracy

49%Cerezo

Statistics

CerezoV-varen
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots16
4Corners5
7Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots16
4On Target5
2Off Target7
5Blocked4
6Inside Box7
5Outside Box9
Passing
50%Possession50%
499Total Passes481
395Accurate Passes398
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki

Cerezo Osaka beat V-varen Nagasaki 3-1 in J1 League on May 5, 2018.

Goals: Y. Kakitani (30'), Y. Maruhashi (37'), K. Nakamura (54'), K. Mizunuma (86').

Cerezo Osaka controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Osaka Nagai Stadium in Osaka.