V-varen Nagasaki 5–1 Blaublitz Akita

V-varen Nagasaki

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blaublitz Akita

S. Aoki 90'

Matheus Jesus 89', 52', 19'

Marcos Guilherme 62'

K. Muramatsu 64'

3/23/2025

J2 League · Round 6Peace Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki46%

×Draw26%

Blaublitz Akita28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

V-varen NagasakiExpected goals in this matchBlaublitz Akita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

V-varen Nagasaki

1.46

Blaublitz Akita

1.09

V-varen Nagasaki creates 34% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 101 away

1.65

creates per match

1.08

1.10

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.65

Blaublitz Akita

1.08

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki

1.10

Blaublitz Akita

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Blaublitz Akita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw

72%

V-varen Nagasaki or Blaublitz Akita

74%

Draw or Blaublitz Akita

54%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

22%

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

77%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

43%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

18%

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

66%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

30%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

62%

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.10 · 144 matches

Blaublitz Akita away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Blaublitz Akita attack 1.08 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

46%

level

26%

Blaublitz Akita scores more

28%

V-varen Nagasaki at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Matheus Jesus↳ H. Yamaguchi

39'

R. Inoue

42'

R. Yamada← H. Yamaguchi

52'

Matheus Jesus↳ M. Sekiguchi

59'

J. Hata← T. Mizutani

62'

Marcos Guilherme

64'

K. Muramatsu

69'

S. Yoneda← K. Takahata

69'

R. Yamasaki← E. Junio

80'

T. Fujiyama← H. Morooka

80'

S. Suzuki← M. Yoshioka

80'

K. Sagawa← R. Komatsu

86'

R. Ishida← R. Inoue

89'

S. Aoki← A. Masuyama

89'

K. Matsuzawa← Marcos Guilherme

89'

Matheus Jesus

90'

S. Aoki↳ K. Matsuzawa

V-varen

Blaublitz

1

Yamada

2

Okazaki

32

Hasegawa

16

⚽

Muramatsu

4

▼

Inoue

6

▼

Morooka

20

▼

Yoshioka

80

Onohara

7

▼

Mizutani

10

▼

11

21

4

25

17

▼

Takahata

3

A

Sekiguchi

5

A

▼

Yamaguchi

13

Kato

7

⚽

▼

Guilherme

8

▼

Masuyama

10

⚽3

Jesus

11

▼

Junio

Manager: Takuya Takagi

42'▲R. Yamada←▼H. Yamaguchi

69'▲S. Yoneda←▼K. Takahata

69'▲R. Yamasaki←▼E. Junio

89'▲S. Aoki←▼A. Masuyama

89'▲K. Matsuzawa←▼Marcos Guilherme

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

31Harada23Yoneda48Teruyama14Nagura19Sawada24Yamada36Aoki38Matsuzawa18Yamasaki

Manager: Ken Yoshida

59'▲J. Hata←▼T. Mizutani

80'▲T. Fujiyama←▼H. Morooka

80'▲S. Suzuki←▼M. Yoshioka

80'▲K. Sagawa←▼R. Komatsu

86'▲R. Ishida←▼R. Inoue

Blaublitz Akita substitutes

23Yatagai19Ozaki25Fujiyama31Ishida8Hata34Suzuki40Sagawa

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Blaublitz Akita

V-varen Nagasaki beat Blaublitz Akita 5-1 in J2 League on March 23, 2025.

Goals: Matheus Jesus (19', 52', 89'), Marcos Guilherme (62'), K. Muramatsu (64'), S. Aoki (90').

The match was played at Peace Stadium in Nagasaki.

V-varen Nagasaki vs Blaublitz Akita — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Blaublitz Akita