Blaublitz Akita 0–0 V-varen Nagasaki

Blaublitz Akita

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

9/16/2023

J2 League · Round 35Soyu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Blaublitz Akita31%

×Draw28%

V-varen Nagasaki41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blaublitz AkitaExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

Blaublitz Akita

1.06

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

V-varen Nagasaki creates 18% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 142 away

0.86

creates per match

1.43

1.07

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Blaublitz Akita

0.86

V-varen Nagasaki

1.43

allows per match

Blaublitz Akita

1.07

V-varen Nagasaki

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blaublitz Akita+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blaublitz Akita ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blaublitz Akita or draw

59%

Blaublitz Akita or V-varen Nagasaki

72%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

69%

Winning margin

Blaublitz Akita wins by 2+

12%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Blaublitz Akita 1+ goals

65%

Blaublitz Akita 2+ goals

29%

Blaublitz Akita 3+ goals

9%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

71%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

36%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blaublitz Akita (draw refunded)

44%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blaublitz Akita at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.26 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blaublitz Akita attack 0.86 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.06

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.43 + Blaublitz Akita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blaublitz Akita scores more

31%

level

28%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

41%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

R. Nakamura← J. Hata

65'

T. Mizutani← R. Saito

66'

K. Matsuzawa← Marcos Guilherme

66'

S. Joppu← T. Sawada

70'

T. Kawano

72'

S. Aoki← S. Niwa

84'

K. Saito← Y. Kajiya

85'

Y. Imazu

87'

J. Okano← K. Nakamura

87'

T. Abe← Caio César

90'

S. Takahashi← S. Yoneda

Blaublitz

V-varen

21

Hatano

25

Kushibiki

23

▼

Yoneda

18

Imazu

50

▼

Nakamura

10

▼

César

19

▼

8

47

9

2

▼

31

4

5

22

33

25

6

8

▼

Hata

15

▼

Niwa

13

▼

Saito

17

▼

Kajiya

Manager: K. Yoshida

64'▲R. Nakamura←▼J. Hata

65'▲T. Mizutani←▼R. Saito

72'▲S. Aoki←▼S. Niwa

84'▲K. Saito←▼Y. Kajiya

Blaublitz Akita substitutes

9Nakamura7Mizutani40Aoki29Saito23Tanaka3Koyanagi1Yamada

Manager: Fábio Carille

66'▲K. Matsuzawa←▼Marcos Guilherme

66'▲S. Joppu←▼T. Sawada

87'▲J. Okano←▼K. Nakamura

87'▲T. Abe←▼Caio César

90'▲S. Takahashi←▼S. Yoneda

V-varen Nagasaki substitutes

38Matsuzawa32Joppu3Okano35Abe28Takahashi31Harada14Nagura

Match Recap: Blaublitz Akita vs V-varen Nagasaki

Blaublitz Akita and V-varen Nagasaki drew 0-0 in J2 League on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Soyu Stadium in Akita.

Blaublitz Akita vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blaublitz Akita vs V-varen Nagasaki