Uzbekistan 0–0 Iran: Result & Stats | League #30

Uzbekistan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iran

10/10/2024

League #30 · 3rd Round - 3Milliy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Uzbekistan38%

×Draw30%

Iran32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UzbekistanExpected goals in this matchIran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.98

Uzbekistan

1.10

Iran

0.98

Uzbekistan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.14

0.83

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Uzbekistan

1.50

Iran

1.14

allows per match

Uzbekistan

0.83

Iran

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Iran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan ↓

Iran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Uzbekistan or draw

68%

Uzbekistan or Iran

70%

Draw or Iran

62%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan wins by 2+

15%

Iran wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Uzbekistan 1+ goals

67%

Uzbekistan 2+ goals

30%

Uzbekistan 3+ goals

10%

Iran 1+ goals

62%

Iran 2+ goals

26%

Iran 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)

54%

Iran (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Iran away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan attack 1.50 + Iran defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Iran attack 1.14 + Uzbekistan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uzbekistan scores more

38%

level

30%

Iran scores more

32%

Uzbekistan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. Alikulov

Uzbekistan

7.9

Match Events

19'

Farrukh Sayfiev

30'

Odildzhon Khamrobekov

46'

K. Alizhonov← F. Sayfiev

55'

M. Ghayedi← M. Mohebi

56'

Saleh HardaniCard upgrade

57'

Saleh Hardani

66'

Saman Ghoddos

71'

O. Urunov← A. Fayzullaev

71'

O. Noorafkan← S. Ghoddos

79'

A. Gholizadeh← A. Jahanbakhsh

79'

S. Moghanlou← S. Azmoun

90+7'

Rustam Ashurmatov

90+3'

Ali GholizadehPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UzbekistanIran

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

2Corners5

19Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots10

1On Target5

8Off Target2

1Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

378Total Passes479

299Accurate Passes368

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0