Iran 2–2 Uzbekistan: Result & Stats | League #30

Iran

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Uzbekistan

M. Taremi 83', 52'

A. Fayzullaev 53'

K. Erkinov 16'

3/25/2025

League #30 · 3rd Round - 8Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Iran55%

×Draw25%

Uzbekistan19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IranExpected goals in this matchUzbekistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.81

Iran

1.57

Uzbekistan

0.81

Iran creates 94% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.64

creates per match

1.33

0.29

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Iran

1.64

Uzbekistan

1.33

allows per match

Iran

0.29

Uzbekistan

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iran+0.00on par

Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iran ↓

Uzbekistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Iran or draw

81%

Iran or Uzbekistan

75%

Draw or Uzbekistan

45%

Winning margin

Iran wins by 2+

29%

Uzbekistan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Iran 1+ goals

79%

Iran 2+ goals

46%

Iran 3+ goals

21%

Uzbekistan 1+ goals

56%

Uzbekistan 2+ goals

19%

Uzbekistan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Iran (draw refunded)

74%

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iran at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.29 · 14 matches

Uzbekistan away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iran attack 1.64 + Uzbekistan defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Uzbekistan attack 1.33 + Iran defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Iran scores more

55%

level

25%

Uzbekistan scores more

19%

Iran at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Iran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Taremi

Iran · M

9.2

Match Events

16'

K. Erkinov

52'

M. Taremi↳ S. Azmoun

53'

A. Fayzullaev

66'

R. Jiyanov← K. Erkinov

69'

A. Gholizadeh← A. Jahanbakhsh

81'

M. Karimi← S. Ezatolahi

81'

O. Noorafkan← M. Mohammadi

81'

A. Yousefi← S. Hardani

83'

M. Taremi

86'

A. Buriev← O. Khamrobekov

90+2'

A. Nemati← M. Ghayedi

90+5'

A. Mozgovoy← O. Shukurov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IranUzbekistan

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots13

6Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots13

8On Target4

6Off Target4

6Blocked5

14Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

61%Possession39%

464Total Passes295

370Accurate Passes214

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Offsides1