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Uzbekistan U20 vs Kazakhstan U21 — Friendlies 2018

Uzbekistan U20
Uzbekistan U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kazakhstan U21
Kazakhstan U21
A. Jumaev 51'
A. Khaydarov 35', 13'
A. Turganov 8'
10/14/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U2071%
×Draw20%
Kazakhstan U219%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U20
1.88
Kazakhstan U21
0.50

Uzbekistan U20 creates 276% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U20
1.75
Kazakhstan U21
0.50

allows per match

Uzbekistan U20
0.50
Kazakhstan U21
2.00

finishing

Uzbekistan U20+0.00on par
Kazakhstan U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U20 ↓

Kazakhstan U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U20 or draw
91%
Uzbekistan U20 or Kazakhstan U21
80%
Draw or Kazakhstan U21
29%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U20 wins by 2+
44%
Kazakhstan U21 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U20 1+ goals
85%
Uzbekistan U20 2+ goals
56%
Uzbekistan U20 3+ goals
29%
Kazakhstan U21 1+ goals
39%
Kazakhstan U21 2+ goals
9%
Kazakhstan U21 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U20 (draw refunded)
89%
Kazakhstan U21 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U20 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kazakhstan U21 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U20 attack 1.75 + Kazakhstan U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kazakhstan U21 attack 0.50 + Uzbekistan U20 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Uzbekistan U20 scores more
71%
level
20%
Kazakhstan U21 scores more
9%

Uzbekistan U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Turganov
13'
A. Khaydarov
35'
A. Khaydarov
51'
A. Jumaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uzbekistan U20 vs Kazakhstan U21

Uzbekistan U20 beat Kazakhstan U21 3-1 in Friendlies on October 14, 2025.

Goals: A. Turganov (8'), A. Khaydarov (13', 35'), A. Jumaev (51').