Uzbekistan U20 1–0 Kazakhstan U21: Result & Stats

Uzbekistan U20

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kazakhstan U21

10/12/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U2071%

×Draw20%

Kazakhstan U219%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uzbekistan U20Expected goals in this matchKazakhstan U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.50

Uzbekistan U20

1.88

Kazakhstan U21

0.50

Uzbekistan U20 creates 276% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Uzbekistan U20

1.75

Kazakhstan U21

0.50

allows per match

Uzbekistan U20

0.50

Kazakhstan U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uzbekistan U20+0.00on par

Kazakhstan U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U20 ↓

Kazakhstan U21 →

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U20 or draw

91%

Uzbekistan U20 or Kazakhstan U21

80%

Draw or Kazakhstan U21

29%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U20 wins by 2+

44%

Kazakhstan U21 wins by 2+

Team goals

Uzbekistan U20 1+ goals

85%

Uzbekistan U20 2+ goals

56%

Uzbekistan U20 3+ goals

29%

Kazakhstan U21 1+ goals

39%

Kazakhstan U21 2+ goals

Kazakhstan U21 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U20 (draw refunded)

89%

Kazakhstan U21 (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U20 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kazakhstan U21 away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U20 attack 1.75 + Kazakhstan U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kazakhstan U21 attack 0.50 + Uzbekistan U20 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Uzbekistan U20 scores more

71%

level

20%

Kazakhstan U21 scores more

Uzbekistan U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff