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UWI vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019

UWI
UWI
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tivoli Gardens
Tivoli Gardens
9/1/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI31%
×Draw26%
Tivoli Gardens43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI
1.22
Tivoli Gardens
1.48

Tivoli Gardens creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

UWI
1.00
Tivoli Gardens
1.24

allows per match

UWI
1.73
Tivoli Gardens
1.44

finishing

UWI+0.00on par
Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Tivoli Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

UWI or draw
57%
UWI or Tivoli Gardens
74%
Draw or Tivoli Gardens
69%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+
13%
Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals
70%
UWI 2+ goals
34%
UWI 3+ goals
12%
Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals
77%
Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals
43%
Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)
42%
Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UWI scores more
31%
level
26%
Tivoli Gardens scores more
43%

Tivoli Gardens at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI vs Tivoli Gardens

UWI beat Tivoli Gardens 4-0 in Premier League on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at UWI Mona Bowl in Kingston.