Tivoli Gardens 1–0 UWI: Result & Stats

Tivoli Gardens

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UWI

1/19/2020

Premier League · Round 23Edward Seaga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tivoli Gardens53%

×Draw25%

UWI22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tivoli GardensExpected goals in this matchUWI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.95

Tivoli Gardens

1.61

UWI

0.95

Tivoli Gardens creates 69% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

0.79

1.10

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.43

UWI

0.79

allows per match

Tivoli Gardens

1.10

UWI

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tivoli Gardens+0.00on par

UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tivoli Gardens ↓

UWI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tivoli Gardens or draw

78%

Tivoli Gardens or UWI

75%

Draw or UWI

47%

Winning margin

Tivoli Gardens wins by 2+

28%

UWI wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tivoli Gardens 1+ goals

80%

Tivoli Gardens 2+ goals

48%

Tivoli Gardens 3+ goals

22%

UWI 1+ goals

61%

UWI 2+ goals

25%

UWI 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tivoli Gardens (draw refunded)

70%

UWI (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tivoli Gardens at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tivoli Gardens attack 1.43 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

UWI attack 0.79 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tivoli Gardens scores more

53%

level

25%

UWI scores more

22%

Tivoli Gardens at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tivoli Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff