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UWI vs Portmore United — Premier League 2019

UWI
UWI
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Portmore United
Portmore United
12/15/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI24%
×Draw26%
Portmore United49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI
0.95
Portmore United
1.47

Portmore United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

UWI
1.00
Portmore United
1.21

allows per match

UWI
1.73
Portmore United
0.90

finishing

UWI+0.00on par
Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Portmore United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

UWI or draw
51%
UWI or Portmore United
74%
Draw or Portmore United
76%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+
9%
Portmore United wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals
61%
UWI 2+ goals
25%
UWI 3+ goals
7%
Portmore United 1+ goals
77%
Portmore United 2+ goals
43%
Portmore United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)
33%
Portmore United (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Portmore United attack 1.21 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UWI scores more
24%
level
26%
Portmore United scores more
49%

Portmore United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI vs Portmore United

Portmore United beat UWI 2-1 in Premier League on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at UWI Mona Bowl in Kingston.