Portmore United 2–1 UWI: Result & Stats

Portmore United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

UWI

10/13/2019

Premier League · Round 7Prison Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portmore United54%

×Draw26%

UWI20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portmore UnitedExpected goals in this matchUWI

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.79

Portmore United

1.49

UWI

0.79

Portmore United creates 89% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

1.19

creates per match

0.79

0.78

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Portmore United

1.19

UWI

0.79

allows per match

Portmore United

0.78

UWI

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portmore United+0.00on par

UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portmore United ↓

UWI →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portmore United or draw

80%

Portmore United or UWI

74%

Draw or UWI

46%

Winning margin

Portmore United wins by 2+

28%

UWI wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portmore United 1+ goals

77%

Portmore United 2+ goals

44%

Portmore United 3+ goals

19%

UWI 1+ goals

55%

UWI 2+ goals

19%

UWI 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Portmore United (draw refunded)

73%

UWI (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portmore United at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 100 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portmore United attack 1.19 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

UWI attack 0.79 + Portmore United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portmore United scores more

54%

level

26%

UWI scores more

20%

Portmore United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portmore United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff