UWI vs Mount Pleasant Academy — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
UWI20%
Mount Pleasant Academy56%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mount Pleasant Academy creates 86% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
UWI ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches
Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
UWI attack 1.00 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92
Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Mount Pleasant Academy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
WaterhouseMount Pleasant Academy
Portmore United
Humble Lions
Tivoli Gardens
Dunbeholden
Arnett Gardens
Cavalier
Harbour View
Molynes UnitedUWI
Vere UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
UWI host Mount Pleasant Academy on Monday, 2 August 2021 at 20:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Preview: UWI host Mount Pleasant Academy
August 2, 2021: UWI take on Mount Pleasant Academy in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
UWI host Mount Pleasant Academy at UWI Mona Bowl.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.