Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mount Pleasant Academy vs UWI — Premier League 2019

Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
UWI
UWI
2/17/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Drax Hall Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mount Pleasant Academy64%
×Draw22%
UWI14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.81
UWI
0.71

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 155% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
1.84
UWI
0.79

allows per match

Mount Pleasant Academy
0.62
UWI
1.79

finishing

Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par
UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mount Pleasant Academy ↓

UWI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mount Pleasant Academy or draw
86%
Mount Pleasant Academy or UWI
78%
Draw or UWI
36%

Winning margin

Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
37%
UWI wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
84%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
54%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
27%
UWI 1+ goals
51%
UWI 2+ goals
16%
UWI 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
82%
UWI (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mount Pleasant Academy at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.62 · 104 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.84 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

UWI attack 0.79 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
64%
level
22%
UWI scores more
14%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mount Pleasant Academy vs UWI

Mount Pleasant Academy beat UWI 3-0 in Premier League on February 17, 2020.

The match was played at Drax Hall Sports Complex in St. Ann's Bay.