UWI 1–1 Molynes United: Result & Stats

UWI

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molynes United

1/26/2020

Premier League · Round 24UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI35%

×Draw26%

Molynes United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWIExpected goals in this matchMolynes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.39

UWI

1.30

Molynes United

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

1.00

creates per match

1.05

1.73

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

UWI

1.00

Molynes United

1.05

allows per match

UWI

1.73

Molynes United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWI+0.00on par

Molynes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Molynes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

UWI or draw

61%

UWI or Molynes United

74%

Draw or Molynes United

65%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+

15%

Molynes United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals

73%

UWI 2+ goals

37%

UWI 3+ goals

14%

Molynes United 1+ goals

75%

Molynes United 2+ goals

40%

Molynes United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)

47%

Molynes United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Molynes United away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Molynes United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Molynes United attack 1.05 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UWI scores more

35%

level

26%

Molynes United scores more

39%

Molynes United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Molynes United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff