Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Molynes United vs UWI — Premier League 2019

Molynes United
Molynes United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UWI
UWI
11/17/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Constant Spring Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Molynes United41%
×Draw25%
UWI34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molynes United
1.48
UWI
1.33

Molynes United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 14 away

creates per match

Molynes United
1.16
UWI
0.79

allows per match

Molynes United
1.88
UWI
1.79

finishing

Molynes United+0.00on par
UWI+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molynes United ↓

UWI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Molynes United or draw
66%
Molynes United or UWI
75%
Draw or UWI
59%

Winning margin

Molynes United wins by 2+
20%
UWI wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Molynes United 1+ goals
77%
Molynes United 2+ goals
43%
Molynes United 3+ goals
19%
UWI 1+ goals
74%
UWI 2+ goals
38%
UWI 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Molynes United (draw refunded)
55%
UWI (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molynes United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.88 · 94 matches

UWI away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molynes United attack 1.16 + UWI defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

UWI attack 0.79 + Molynes United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Molynes United scores more
41%
level
25%
UWI scores more
34%

Molynes United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Molynes United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Molynes United 1–2 UWI

UWI beat Molynes United 2-1 in Premier League on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Constant Spring Stadium in Kingston.