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UWI Blackbirds vs St. Andrew Lions — Premier League 2026

UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
5/26/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

UWI Blackbirds69%
×Draw16%
St. Andrew Lions15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI Blackbirds
2.84
St. Andrew Lions
1.28

UWI Blackbirds creates 122% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.89
St. Andrew Lions
1.00

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.56
St. Andrew Lions
3.79

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par
St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

St. Andrew Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw
85%
UWI Blackbirds or St. Andrew Lions
84%
Draw or St. Andrew Lions
31%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
48%
St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
94%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
77%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
53%
St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
72%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
37%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
82%
St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.89 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.84

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.00 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more
69%
level
16%
St. Andrew Lions scores more
15%

UWI Blackbirds at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI Blackbirds vs St. Andrew Lions

St. Andrew Lions beat UWI Blackbirds 3-2 in Premier League on May 26, 2026.