UWI Blackbirds 3–3 St. Andrew Lions: Result & Stats

UWI Blackbirds

FT

3 – 3

St. Andrew Lions

2/11/2023

Premier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

UWI Blackbirds70%

×Draw16%

St. Andrew Lions14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWI BlackbirdsExpected goals in this matchSt. Andrew Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.19

UWI Blackbirds

2.81

St. Andrew Lions

1.19

UWI Blackbirds creates 136% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

3.79

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds

1.83

St. Andrew Lions

1.00

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds

1.38

St. Andrew Lions

3.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

St. Andrew Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw

86%

UWI Blackbirds or St. Andrew Lions

84%

Draw or St. Andrew Lions

30%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

50%

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

94%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

76%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

52%

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

70%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

33%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

84%

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.83 + St. Andrew Lions defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.81

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.00 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more

70%

level

16%

St. Andrew Lions scores more

14%

UWI Blackbirds at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff