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UWI Blackbirds vs St. Andrew Lions — Premier League 2019

UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
FT
1 – 1
St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lions
2/9/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

UWI Blackbirds61%
×Draw18%
St. Andrew Lions21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI Blackbirds
2.55
St. Andrew Lions
1.46

UWI Blackbirds creates 75% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds
2.30
St. Andrew Lions
1.67

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.24
St. Andrew Lions
2.81

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par
St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

St. Andrew Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw
79%
UWI Blackbirds or St. Andrew Lions
82%
Draw or St. Andrew Lions
39%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
40%
St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
92%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
72%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
46%
St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
77%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
43%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
74%
St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.55

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.67 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more
61%
level
18%
St. Andrew Lions scores more
21%

UWI Blackbirds at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UWI Blackbirds 1–1 St. Andrew Lions

UWI Blackbirds and St. Andrew Lions drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.