UWI Blackbirds 2–0 Silver Sands: Result & Stats

UWI Blackbirds

FT

2 – 0

Silver Sands

4/13/2025

Premier League · Round 7Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

UWI Blackbirds75%

×Draw14%

Silver Sands11%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWI BlackbirdsExpected goals in this matchSilver Sands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

1.03

UWI Blackbirds

2.89

Silver Sands

1.03

UWI Blackbirds creates 181% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 23 away

2.30

creates per match

0.83

1.24

allows per match

3.48

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds

2.30

Silver Sands

0.83

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds

1.24

Silver Sands

3.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Silver Sands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Silver Sands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw

89%

UWI Blackbirds or Silver Sands

86%

Draw or Silver Sands

25%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

54%

Silver Sands wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

94%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

78%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

54%

Silver Sands 1+ goals

64%

Silver Sands 2+ goals

28%

Silver Sands 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

87%

Silver Sands (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Silver Sands away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + Silver Sands defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.89

Silver Sands attack 0.83 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more

75%

level

14%

Silver Sands scores more

11%

UWI Blackbirds at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff