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Silver Sands vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Silver Sands
Silver Sands
FT
1 – 5
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
6/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Silver Sands14%
×Draw16%
UWI Blackbirds70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Silver Sands
1.17
UWI Blackbirds
2.73

UWI Blackbirds creates 133% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Silver Sands
0.74
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Silver Sands
3.87
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Silver Sands+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Silver Sands ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Silver Sands or draw
30%
Silver Sands or UWI Blackbirds
84%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
86%

Winning margin

Silver Sands wins by 2+
5%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Silver Sands 1+ goals
69%
Silver Sands 2+ goals
33%
Silver Sands 3+ goals
11%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
93%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
75%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Silver Sands (draw refunded)
17%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Silver Sands at home — creates 0.74, concedes 3.87 · 23 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Silver Sands attack 0.74 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.17

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Silver Sands defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Silver Sands scores more
14%
level
16%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
70%

UWI Blackbirds at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Silver Sands vs UWI Blackbirds

UWI Blackbirds beat Silver Sands 5-1 in Premier League on June 14, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.