UWI Blackbirds 2–2 Notre Dame: Result & Stats

UWI Blackbirds

FT

2 – 2

Notre Dame

3/14/2020

Premier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

UWI Blackbirds49%

×Draw20%

Notre Dame30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWI BlackbirdsExpected goals in this matchNotre Dame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.73

UWI Blackbirds

2.23

Notre Dame

1.73

UWI Blackbirds creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 18 away

2.30

creates per match

2.22

1.24

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds

2.30

Notre Dame

2.22

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds

1.24

Notre Dame

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Notre Dame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw

70%

UWI Blackbirds or Notre Dame

80%

Draw or Notre Dame

51%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

29%

Notre Dame wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

89%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

65%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

38%

Notre Dame 1+ goals

82%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

52%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

62%

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + Notre Dame defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Notre Dame attack 2.22 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more

49%

level

20%

Notre Dame scores more

30%

UWI Blackbirds at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff