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Notre Dame vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Notre Dame
Notre Dame
FT
1 – 3
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
4/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame32%
×Draw21%
UWI Blackbirds48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notre Dame
1.73
UWI Blackbirds
2.15

UWI Blackbirds creates 24% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 37 away

creates per match

Notre Dame
1.86
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Notre Dame
2.71
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw
52%
Notre Dame or UWI Blackbirds
79%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
68%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+
16%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals
82%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
52%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
25%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
88%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
63%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)
40%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Notre Dame scores more
32%
level
21%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
48%

UWI Blackbirds at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Notre Dame 1–3 UWI Blackbirds

UWI Blackbirds beat Notre Dame 3-1 in Premier League on April 4, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.