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UWI Blackbirds vs Brittons Hill — Premier League 2024

UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
FT
2 – 1
Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
4/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

UWI Blackbirds39%
×Draw23%
Brittons Hill38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI Blackbirds
1.74
Brittons Hill
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.83
Brittons Hill
2.05

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.38
Brittons Hill
1.65

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par
Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Brittons Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw
62%
UWI Blackbirds or Brittons Hill
77%
Draw or Brittons Hill
61%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
20%
Brittons Hill wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
82%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
52%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
25%
Brittons Hill 1+ goals
82%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
51%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
51%
Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.83 + Brittons Hill defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Brittons Hill attack 2.05 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more
39%
level
23%
Brittons Hill scores more
38%

UWI Blackbirds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI Blackbirds vs Brittons Hill

UWI Blackbirds beat Brittons Hill 2-1 in Premier League on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.