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Brittons Hill vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2026

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
4/5/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brittons Hill54%
×Draw23%
UWI Blackbirds23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
1.79
UWI Blackbirds
1.09

Brittons Hill creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.39
UWI Blackbirds
1.18

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.00
UWI Blackbirds
1.18

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
77%
Brittons Hill or UWI Blackbirds
77%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
46%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
30%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
83%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
53%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
26%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
66%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
30%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
70%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.39 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.18 + Brittons Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
54%
level
23%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
23%

Brittons Hill at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Brittons Hill 3–0 UWI Blackbirds

Brittons Hill beat UWI Blackbirds 3-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2026.