UWI Blackbirds 3–1 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

UWI Blackbirds

FT

3 – 1

Brittons Hill

7/14/2023

Premier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

UWI Blackbirds47%

×Draw22%

Brittons Hill32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWI BlackbirdsExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.63

UWI Blackbirds

2.02

Brittons Hill

1.63

UWI Blackbirds creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 40 away

2.30

creates per match

2.02

1.24

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds

2.30

Brittons Hill

2.02

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds

1.24

Brittons Hill

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw

68%

UWI Blackbirds or Brittons Hill

78%

Draw or Brittons Hill

53%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

27%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

87%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

60%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

33%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

80%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

48%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

60%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + Brittons Hill defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.02

Brittons Hill attack 2.02 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more

47%

level

22%

Brittons Hill scores more

32%

UWI Blackbirds at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff