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UWA Nedlands vs Kalamunda City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

UWA Nedlands
UWA Nedlands
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
5/10/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 7UWA Sports Park A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

UWA Nedlands57%
×Draw24%
Kalamunda City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWA Nedlands
1.73
Kalamunda City
0.88

UWA Nedlands creates 97% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

UWA Nedlands
2.28
Kalamunda City
0.82

allows per match

UWA Nedlands
0.93
Kalamunda City
1.18

finishing

UWA Nedlands+0.00on par
Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWA Nedlands ↓

Kalamunda City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UWA Nedlands or draw
81%
UWA Nedlands or Kalamunda City
76%
Draw or Kalamunda City
43%

Winning margin

UWA Nedlands wins by 2+
32%
Kalamunda City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UWA Nedlands 1+ goals
82%
UWA Nedlands 2+ goals
52%
UWA Nedlands 3+ goals
25%
Kalamunda City 1+ goals
59%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
22%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UWA Nedlands (draw refunded)
75%
Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWA Nedlands at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWA Nedlands attack 2.28 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + UWA Nedlands defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

UWA Nedlands scores more
57%
level
24%
Kalamunda City scores more
19%

UWA Nedlands at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UWA Nedlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWA Nedlands vs Kalamunda City

UWA Nedlands beat Kalamunda City 3-0 in Western Australia State League 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at UWA Sports Park A in Mt Claremont.