Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalamunda City vs UWA Nedlands — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Kalamunda City
Kalamunda City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
UWA Nedlands
UWA Nedlands
7/26/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 18Maida Vale Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kalamunda City28%
×Draw21%
UWA Nedlands51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalamunda City
1.50
UWA Nedlands
2.08

UWA Nedlands creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kalamunda City
1.27
UWA Nedlands
2.06

allows per match

Kalamunda City
2.09
UWA Nedlands
1.74

finishing

Kalamunda City+0.00on par
UWA Nedlands+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalamunda City ↓

UWA Nedlands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kalamunda City or draw
49%
Kalamunda City or UWA Nedlands
79%
Draw or UWA Nedlands
72%

Winning margin

Kalamunda City wins by 2+
13%
UWA Nedlands wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Kalamunda City 1+ goals
78%
Kalamunda City 2+ goals
44%
Kalamunda City 3+ goals
19%
UWA Nedlands 1+ goals
87%
UWA Nedlands 2+ goals
61%
UWA Nedlands 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)
35%
UWA Nedlands (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalamunda City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

UWA Nedlands away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalamunda City attack 1.27 + UWA Nedlands defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

UWA Nedlands attack 2.06 + Kalamunda City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalamunda City scores more
28%
level
21%
UWA Nedlands scores more
51%

UWA Nedlands at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UWA Nedlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Kalamunda City 2–4 UWA Nedlands

UWA Nedlands beat Kalamunda City 4-2 in Western Australia State League 1 on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at Maida Vale Reserve in Maida Vale.