UWA Nedlands 6–1 ECU Joondalup: Result & Stats

UWA Nedlands

FT

6 – 1

ECU Joondalup

3/30/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 2UWA Sports Park A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

UWA Nedlands67%

×Draw16%

ECU Joondalup17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UWA NedlandsExpected goals in this matchECU Joondalup

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.47

UWA Nedlands

2.96

ECU Joondalup

1.47

UWA Nedlands creates 101% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

2.28

creates per match

2.00

0.93

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

UWA Nedlands

2.28

ECU Joondalup

2.00

allows per match

UWA Nedlands

0.93

ECU Joondalup

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UWA Nedlands+0.00on par

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWA Nedlands ↓

ECU Joondalup →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

UWA Nedlands or draw

83%

UWA Nedlands or ECU Joondalup

84%

Draw or ECU Joondalup

33%

Winning margin

UWA Nedlands wins by 2+

47%

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

UWA Nedlands 1+ goals

95%

UWA Nedlands 2+ goals

79%

UWA Nedlands 3+ goals

55%

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

77%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

43%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

UWA Nedlands (draw refunded)

80%

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWA Nedlands at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

ECU Joondalup away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWA Nedlands attack 2.28 + ECU Joondalup defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.96

ECU Joondalup attack 2.00 + UWA Nedlands defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

UWA Nedlands scores more

67%

level

16%

ECU Joondalup scores more

17%

UWA Nedlands at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "UWA Nedlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff