ECU Joondalup 2–0 UWA Nedlands: Result & Stats

ECU Joondalup

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UWA Nedlands

6/29/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 13Forrest Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ECU Joondalup44%

×Draw20%

UWA Nedlands36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ECU JoondalupExpected goals in this matchUWA Nedlands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.98

ECU Joondalup

2.19

UWA Nedlands

1.98

ECU Joondalup creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

2.64

creates per match

2.06

1.91

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

ECU Joondalup

2.64

UWA Nedlands

2.06

allows per match

ECU Joondalup

1.91

UWA Nedlands

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ECU Joondalup+0.00on par

UWA Nedlands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ECU Joondalup ↓

UWA Nedlands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

ECU Joondalup or draw

64%

ECU Joondalup or UWA Nedlands

80%

Draw or UWA Nedlands

56%

Winning margin

ECU Joondalup wins by 2+

25%

UWA Nedlands wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ECU Joondalup 1+ goals

89%

ECU Joondalup 2+ goals

64%

ECU Joondalup 3+ goals

37%

UWA Nedlands 1+ goals

86%

UWA Nedlands 2+ goals

59%

UWA Nedlands 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

ECU Joondalup (draw refunded)

55%

UWA Nedlands (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ECU Joondalup at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

UWA Nedlands away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ECU Joondalup attack 2.64 + UWA Nedlands defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.19

UWA Nedlands attack 2.06 + ECU Joondalup defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

ECU Joondalup scores more

44%

level

20%

UWA Nedlands scores more

36%

ECU Joondalup at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ECU Joondalup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff