Utsikten 1–4 Umeå FC: Result & Stats | Superettan

Utsikten

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Umeå FC

A. Sanyang 16'

J. Voilas 90'

E. Bjorgolfsson 57', 45', 37' (pen)

11/8/2025

Superettan · Round 30Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Utsikten55%

×Draw23%

Umeå FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtsiktenExpected goals in this matchUmeå FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.09

Utsikten

1.86

Umeå FC

1.09

Utsikten creates 71% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

1.79

creates per match

0.97

1.21

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Utsikten

1.79

Umeå FC

0.97

allows per match

Utsikten

1.21

Umeå FC

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par

Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Umeå FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw

78%

Utsikten or Umeå FC

77%

Draw or Umeå FC

45%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+

32%

Umeå FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals

84%

Utsikten 2+ goals

55%

Utsikten 3+ goals

28%

Umeå FC 1+ goals

66%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

30%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)

71%

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Umeå FC defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.86

Umeå FC attack 0.97 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Utsikten scores more

55%

level

23%

Umeå FC scores more

22%

Utsikten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Bjorgolfsson

Umeå FC · F

9.6

Match Events

16'

A. Sanyang↳ W. Hjort

36'

Alexander Faltsetas

37'

E. BjorgolfssonPenalty

38'

Wiggo Hjort

38'

Teo Grönborg

42'

E. Yeboah← G. Yiriyon Yaw

45'

E. Bjorgolfsson↳ D. Persson

46'

L. Abadid← A. Faltsetas

54'

Adil Titi

57'

E. Bjorgolfsson↳ S. Forsman

62'

M. Moenza← W. Blix

62'

N. Johansson← A. Titi

64'

J. Voilas← E. Bjorgolfsson

70'

A. Mohideen← M. Sise

75'

A. Martiatu Nordeman← S. Forsman

78'

K. Rodeblad Lowe← A. Karlsson

81'

T. Olsson← D. Persson

81'

N. Linden← L. Frigell Jansson

84'

Liiban Abdirahman Abadid

90'

J. Voilas↳ T. Gronborg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtsiktenUmeå

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots17

0.85Expected Goals (xG)2.24

3Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots17

4On Target8

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

6Inside Box13

6Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

473Total Passes383

416Accurate Passes329

88%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Superettan: Utsikten 1–4 Umeå FC

Umeå FC beat Utsikten 4-1 in Superettan on November 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Sanyang (16'), E. Bjorgolfsson (37' pen, 45', 57'), J. Voilas (90').

Utsikten controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Gothenburg.

Utsikten vs Umeå FC — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Utsikten 1–4 Umeå FC