Umeå FC 1–3 Utsikten: Result & Stats | Superettan

Umeå FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Utsikten

M. H. Haga 88' (pen)

S. Lagerlund 90'

M. Sise 90'

A. Johansson 45'

5/17/2025

Superettan · Round 8Umea Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Umeå FC44%

×Draw24%

Utsikten32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Umeå FCExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Umeå FC

1.65

Utsikten

1.36

Umeå FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.68

creates per match

1.26

1.46

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Umeå FC

1.68

Utsikten

1.26

allows per match

Umeå FC

1.46

Utsikten

1.62

-1.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Umeå FC-1.18scores less

Utsikten+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå FC ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Umeå FC or draw

68%

Umeå FC or Utsikten

76%

Draw or Utsikten

56%

Winning margin

Umeå FC wins by 2+

23%

Utsikten wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Umeå FC 1+ goals

81%

Umeå FC 2+ goals

49%

Umeå FC 3+ goals

23%

Utsikten 1+ goals

74%

Utsikten 2+ goals

39%

Utsikten 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Umeå FC (draw refunded)

58%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå FC attack 1.68 + Utsikten defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.65

Utsikten attack 1.26 + Umeå FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Umeå FC scores more

44%

level

24%

Utsikten scores more

32%

Umeå FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Umeå FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

75

J. Ojrzynski

Utsikten · G

8.3

Match Events

45'

A. Johansson↳ A. Faltsetas

46'

J. Selven← W. Hjort

65'

Karl Bohm

66'

L. Marklund← J. Voilas

72'

D. Tokpah← A. Faltsetas

80'

M. Sise← A. Johansson

88'

M. H. HagaPenalty

90+1'

Robin Book

90+3'

J. Hedenquist← J. Hedstrom

90+3'

D. Bangala← A. Martiatu Nordeman

90+5'

A. Karlsson← A. Salaou

90'

S. Lagerlund↳ R. Book

90'

M. Sise↳ D. Tokpah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UmeåUtsikten

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots11

2.21Expected Goals (xG)1.63

8Corners4

15Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target4

3Off Target3

5Blocked4

12Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

385Total Passes262

311Accurate Passes200

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4