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Utsikten vs Atvidabergs FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atvidabergs FF
Atvidabergs FF
7/6/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 16Ruddalens IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Utsikten55%
×Draw22%
Atvidabergs FF22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
1.91
Atvidabergs FF
1.13

Utsikten creates 69% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 66 away

creates per match

Utsikten
1.98
Atvidabergs FF
1.21

allows per match

Utsikten
1.04
Atvidabergs FF
1.83

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Atvidabergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
78%
Utsikten or Atvidabergs FF
78%
Draw or Atvidabergs FF
45%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
32%
Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
85%
Utsikten 2+ goals
57%
Utsikten 3+ goals
30%
Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals
68%
Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals
31%
Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
71%
Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

Atvidabergs FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.98 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.21 + Utsikten defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Utsikten scores more
55%
level
22%
Atvidabergs FF scores more
22%

Utsikten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Utsikten 3–0 Atvidabergs FF

Utsikten beat Atvidabergs FF 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on July 6, 2019.

The match was played at Ruddalens IP 1 in Västra Frölunda.