Atvidabergs FF 1–0 Utsikten: Result & Stats

Atvidabergs FF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utsikten

S. Östlund 67'

10/9/2021

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 24Kopparvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Atvidabergs FF39%

×Draw25%

Utsikten36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atvidabergs FFExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.38

Atvidabergs FF

1.43

Utsikten

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

1.38

1.37

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.19

Utsikten

1.38

allows per match

Atvidabergs FF

1.37

Utsikten

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atvidabergs FF+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atvidabergs FF ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atvidabergs FF or draw

64%

Atvidabergs FF or Utsikten

75%

Draw or Utsikten

61%

Winning margin

Atvidabergs FF wins by 2+

18%

Utsikten wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atvidabergs FF 1+ goals

76%

Atvidabergs FF 2+ goals

42%

Atvidabergs FF 3+ goals

17%

Utsikten 1+ goals

75%

Utsikten 2+ goals

40%

Utsikten 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Atvidabergs FF (draw refunded)

52%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atvidabergs FF at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atvidabergs FF attack 1.19 + Utsikten defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

Utsikten attack 1.38 + Atvidabergs FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atvidabergs FF scores more

39%

level

25%

Utsikten scores more

36%

Atvidabergs FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atvidabergs FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Mohideen

46'

E. Gunnarsson← A. Mohideen

57'

B. Tannus

67'

S. Östlund

80'

A. Angelin

83'

E. Bosnic← P. Ranđelović

86'

M. Karlsson← B. Tannus

87'

A. Bergsson← L. Hedlund

88'

K. Bohm

Atvidabergs

Utsikten

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Ny

86'▲M. Karlsson←▼B. Tannus

Atvidabergs FF substitutes

KarlssonErikssonGuseffBonillaSundellSandholmAndersson

Manager: B. Orovic

46'▲E. Gunnarsson←▼A. Mohideen

83'▲E. Bosnic←▼P. Ranđelović

87'▲A. Bergsson←▼L. Hedlund

Utsikten substitutes

GunnarssonBosnicBergssonLudvigssonJohanssonSmedberg-DalencePodrimcaku

Match Recap: Atvidabergs FF vs Utsikten

Atvidabergs FF beat Utsikten 1-0 in Ettan - Södra on October 9, 2021.

Goals: S. Östlund (67').

The match was played at Kopparvallen in Åtvidaberg.

Atvidabergs FF vs Utsikten — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atvidabergs FF vs Utsikten