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UTS Rabat vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
10/4/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 5Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat42%
×Draw29%
Moghreb Tetouan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.24
Moghreb Tetouan
0.99

UTS Rabat creates 25% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 91 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.12
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.08
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
71%
UTS Rabat or Moghreb Tetouan
71%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
58%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
19%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
71%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
35%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
13%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
63%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
26%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
59%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
42%
level
29%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
29%

UTS Rabat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: UTS Rabat 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan

UTS Rabat beat Moghreb Tetouan 1-0 in Botola Pro on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.