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Moghreb Tetouan vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
2/7/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan41%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.22
UTS Rabat
1.02

Moghreb Tetouan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.07
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.98
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
69%
Moghreb Tetouan or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
59%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
18%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
70%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
34%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
12%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
64%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
27%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
57%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 1.07 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
41%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
31%

Moghreb Tetouan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Moghreb Tetouan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Moghreb Tetouan 1–1 UTS Rabat

Moghreb Tetouan and UTS Rabat drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.