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UTS Rabat vs AS Salé — Botola 2 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
2 – 1
AS Salé
AS Salé
11/6/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 8Stade du FUS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UTS Rabat47%
×Draw26%
AS Salé27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.48
AS Salé
1.07

UTS Rabat creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 90 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.47
AS Salé
0.92

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.23
AS Salé
1.50

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
AS Salé+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

AS Salé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
73%
UTS Rabat or AS Salé
74%
Draw or AS Salé
53%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
23%
AS Salé wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
77%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
43%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
19%
AS Salé 1+ goals
66%
AS Salé 2+ goals
29%
AS Salé 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
63%
AS Salé (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

AS Salé away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.47 + AS Salé defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

AS Salé attack 0.92 + UTS Rabat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
47%
level
26%
AS Salé scores more
27%

UTS Rabat at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: UTS Rabat 2–1 AS Salé

UTS Rabat beat AS Salé 2-1 in Botola 2 on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du FUS in Rabat.