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AS Salé vs UTS Rabat — Botola 2 2025

AS Salé
AS Salé
FT
1 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
12/19/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 4Stade Boubker Ammar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

AS Salé32%
×Draw29%
UTS Rabat39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Salé
1.02
UTS Rabat
1.15

UTS Rabat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 30 away

creates per match

AS Salé
1.11
UTS Rabat
1.17

allows per match

AS Salé
1.12
UTS Rabat
0.93

finishing

AS Salé+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Salé ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AS Salé or draw
61%
AS Salé or UTS Rabat
71%
Draw or UTS Rabat
68%

Winning margin

AS Salé wins by 2+
12%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AS Salé 1+ goals
64%
AS Salé 2+ goals
27%
AS Salé 3+ goals
8%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
68%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
32%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Salé (draw refunded)
45%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Salé at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Salé attack 1.11 + UTS Rabat defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

UTS Rabat attack 1.17 + AS Salé defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Salé scores more
32%
level
29%
UTS Rabat scores more
39%

UTS Rabat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: AS Salé 1–0 UTS Rabat

AS Salé beat UTS Rabat 1-0 in Botola 2 on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Boubker Ammar in Salé.