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Utrera vs Écija — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
3 – 0
Écija
Écija
11/2/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Utrera80%
×Draw15%
Écija5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
2.31
Écija
0.42

Utrera creates 450% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 18 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Écija
0.00

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Écija
3.00

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Écija+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Écija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
95%
Utrera or Écija
85%
Draw or Écija
20%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
56%
Écija wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
90%
Utrera 2+ goals
67%
Utrera 3+ goals
40%
Écija 1+ goals
34%
Écija 2+ goals
7%
Écija 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
94%
Écija (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Écija away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Écija attack 0.00 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Utrera scores more
80%
level
15%
Écija scores more
5%

Utrera at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Utrera 3–0 Écija

Utrera beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Sevilla.