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Écija vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Écija
Écija
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Utrera
Utrera
3/21/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Municipal San Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Écija9%
×Draw18%
Utrera73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Écija
0.61
Utrera
2.16

Utrera creates 254% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 96 away

creates per match

Écija
0.00
Utrera
1.32

allows per match

Écija
3.00
Utrera
1.23

finishing

Écija+0.00on par
Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Écija ↓

Utrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–114%
0–215%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Écija or draw
27%
Écija or Utrera
82%
Draw or Utrera
91%

Winning margin

Écija wins by 2+
2%
Utrera wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Écija 1+ goals
46%
Écija 2+ goals
13%
Écija 3+ goals
2%
Utrera 1+ goals
88%
Utrera 2+ goals
63%
Utrera 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Écija (draw refunded)
11%
Utrera (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Écija at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Écija attack 0.00 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.61

Utrera attack 1.32 + Écija defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Écija scores more
9%
level
18%
Utrera scores more
73%

Utrera at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Écija 0 – 3 Utrera

Utrera beat Écija 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Pablo in Écija.