Utrera 0–1 Córdoba II: Result & Stats

Utrera

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Córdoba II

Mario Peregrina 26' (pen)

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Utrera48%

×Draw26%

Córdoba II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtreraExpected goals in this matchCórdoba II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.99

Utrera

1.48

Córdoba II

0.99

Utrera creates 49% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

1.62

creates per match

1.13

0.85

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Utrera

1.62

Córdoba II

1.13

allows per match

Utrera

0.85

Córdoba II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par

Córdoba II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Córdoba II →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Utrera or draw

75%

Utrera or Córdoba II

74%

Draw or Córdoba II

52%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+

24%

Córdoba II wins by 2+

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals

77%

Utrera 2+ goals

43%

Utrera 3+ goals

19%

Córdoba II 1+ goals

63%

Córdoba II 2+ goals

26%

Córdoba II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)

66%

Córdoba II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Córdoba II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Córdoba II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Córdoba II attack 1.13 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Utrera scores more

48%

level

26%

Córdoba II scores more

25%

Utrera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Mario PeregrinaPenalty

51'

Paco Benítez← Miguelón

66'

C. Susmel← Pablo Molero

66'

Manu← Kiki

66'

Zaki← Álvaro Gómez

72'

Plusco← Álex Fernández

78'

Borja García← Álvaro Vázquez

78'

Bugui← Mario Peregrina

79'

Javier Núñez← Brian Triviño

Utrera

Córdoba

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Ángel Montoya

66'▲C. Susmel←▼Pablo Molero

66'▲Manu←▼Kiki

72'▲Plusco←▼Álex Fernández

79'▲Javier Núñez←▼Brian Triviño

Utrera substitutes

SusmelManuPluscoNúñez

Manager: Gaspar Gálvez

51'▲Paco Benítez←▼Miguelón

66'▲Zaki←▼Álvaro Gómez

78'▲Borja García←▼Álvaro Vázquez

78'▲Bugui←▼Mario Peregrina

Córdoba II substitutes

BenítezZakiGarcíaBugui

Match Recap: Utrera vs Córdoba II

Córdoba II beat Utrera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 12, 2025.

Goals: Mario Peregrina (26' pen).

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Utrera.

Utrera vs Córdoba II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Utrera vs Córdoba II