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Córdoba II vs Utrera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Córdoba II
Córdoba II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Utrera
Utrera
2/24/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Córdoba II42%
×Draw26%
Utrera32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Córdoba II
1.42
Utrera
1.19

Córdoba II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 96 away

creates per match

Córdoba II
1.60
Utrera
1.32

allows per match

Córdoba II
1.05
Utrera
1.23

finishing

Córdoba II+0.00on par
Utrera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Córdoba II ↓

Utrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Córdoba II or draw
68%
Córdoba II or Utrera
74%
Draw or Utrera
58%

Winning margin

Córdoba II wins by 2+
20%
Utrera wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Córdoba II 1+ goals
76%
Córdoba II 2+ goals
41%
Córdoba II 3+ goals
17%
Utrera 1+ goals
70%
Utrera 2+ goals
33%
Utrera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Córdoba II (draw refunded)
57%
Utrera (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Córdoba II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Utrera away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Córdoba II attack 1.60 + Utrera defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.42

Utrera attack 1.32 + Córdoba II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Córdoba II scores more
42%
level
26%
Utrera scores more
32%

Córdoba II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Córdoba II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Córdoba II 1–1 Utrera

Córdoba II and Utrera drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Rafael Gómez in Córdoba.