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Utrecht vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

Utrecht
Utrecht
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
11/8/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 12Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Utrecht60%
×Draw22%
Heracles18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrecht
1.93
Heracles
0.96

Utrecht creates 101% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 117 away

creates per match

Utrecht
1.74
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

Utrecht
1.13
Heracles
2.12

finishing

Utrecht+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw
82%
Utrecht or Heracles
78%
Draw or Heracles
40%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+
36%
Heracles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals
85%
Utrecht 2+ goals
57%
Utrecht 3+ goals
30%
Heracles 1+ goals
62%
Heracles 2+ goals
25%
Heracles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)
77%
Heracles (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.13 · 139 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.74 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.93

Heracles attack 0.79 + Utrecht defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Utrecht scores more
60%
level
22%
Heracles scores more
18%

Utrecht at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utrecht vs Heracles

Utrecht beat Heracles 1-0 in Eredivisie on November 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht.