Heracles 0–0 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Heracles

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utrecht

3/6/2026

Eredivisie · Round 26Asito Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Heracles39%

×Draw23%

Utrecht37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.59

Heracles

1.64

Utrecht

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 136 away

1.73

creates per match

1.56

1.62

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Heracles

1.73

Utrecht

1.56

allows per match

Heracles

1.62

Utrecht

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

63%

Heracles or Utrecht

77%

Draw or Utrecht

61%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

20%

Utrecht wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

81%

Heracles 2+ goals

49%

Heracles 3+ goals

23%

Utrecht 1+ goals

80%

Utrecht 2+ goals

47%

Utrecht 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

51%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + Utrecht defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Utrecht attack 1.56 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heracles scores more

39%

level

23%

Utrecht scores more

37%

Heracles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff