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Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie 2018

Utrecht
Utrecht
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
2/11/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 21Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Utrecht56%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrecht
1.85
Fortuna Sittard
1.03

Utrecht creates 80% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Utrecht
1.61
Fortuna Sittard
0.90

allows per match

Utrecht
1.17
Fortuna Sittard
2.10

finishing

Utrecht-0.01on par
Fortuna Sittard+0.27scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw
79%
Utrecht or Fortuna Sittard
77%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
44%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+
32%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals
84%
Utrecht 2+ goals
55%
Utrecht 3+ goals
28%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
64%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
28%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)
73%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.10 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.61 + Fortuna Sittard defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.85

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 + Utrecht defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Utrecht scores more
56%
level
23%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
21%

Utrecht at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utrecht vs Fortuna Sittard

Utrecht beat Fortuna Sittard 4-0 in Eredivisie on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht.