Fortuna Sittard 0–0 Utrecht: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utrecht

5/18/2025

Eredivisie · Round 34Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Fortuna Sittard40%

×Draw24%

Utrecht36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna SittardExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.50

Fortuna Sittard

1.60

Utrecht

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

1.46

creates per match

1.35

1.66

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.46

Utrecht

1.35

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.66

Utrecht

1.75

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.15scores more

Utrecht+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw

64%

Fortuna Sittard or Utrecht

76%

Draw or Utrecht

60%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

20%

Utrecht wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

80%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

47%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

22%

Utrecht 1+ goals

78%

Utrecht 2+ goals

44%

Utrecht 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

53%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.66 · 18 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.75 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.46 + Utrecht defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Utrecht attack 1.35 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more

40%

level

24%

Utrecht scores more

36%

Fortuna Sittard at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Rodrigo Guth

Fortuna Sittard · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

K. Finnsson← N. Vesterlund

46'

N. Ohio← D. Min

57'

A. Blake← Y. Cathline

72'

P. Aaronson← O. Fraulo

72'

J. Toornstra← Miguel Rodríguez

73'

Rodrigo Guth

76'

K. Sierhuis← E. Bullaude

76'

J. Mitrović← K. Peterson

80'

Luka Tunjić

81'

D. Grujčić← L. Rosier

90'

O. Johnson← B. Radulović

90'

T. Schenkhuizen← Ivo Pinto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaUtrecht

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots13

0.51Expected Goals (xG)0.63

9Corners3

8Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots13

3On Target5

6Off Target3

3Blocked5

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

378Total Passes405

290Accurate Passes324

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.77Goals Prevented0.77

Discipline

8Fouls21

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1