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Utiel vs La Nucía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Utiel
Utiel
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Nucía
La Nucía
12/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Utiel30%
×Draw30%
La Nucía40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utiel
0.94
La Nucía
1.13

La Nucía creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Utiel
1.20
La Nucía
1.11

allows per match

Utiel
1.14
La Nucía
0.67

finishing

Utiel+0.00on par
La Nucía+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utiel ↓

La Nucía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Utiel or draw
60%
Utiel or La Nucía
70%
Draw or La Nucía
70%

Winning margin

Utiel wins by 2+
11%
La Nucía wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Utiel 1+ goals
61%
Utiel 2+ goals
24%
Utiel 3+ goals
7%
La Nucía 1+ goals
68%
La Nucía 2+ goals
31%
La Nucía 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utiel (draw refunded)
43%
La Nucía (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utiel at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

La Nucía away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utiel attack 1.20 + La Nucía defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

La Nucía attack 1.11 + Utiel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Utiel scores more
30%
level
30%
La Nucía scores more
40%

La Nucía at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Utiel 2–1 La Nucía

Utiel beat La Nucía 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Muncipal La Celadilla in Utiel.