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La Nucía vs Utiel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

La Nucía
La Nucía
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Utiel
Utiel
10/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía47%
×Draw28%
Utiel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Nucía
1.33
Utiel
0.90

La Nucía creates 48% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 51 away

creates per match

La Nucía
1.53
Utiel
0.98

allows per match

La Nucía
0.81
Utiel
1.12

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par
Utiel+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Utiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw
75%
La Nucía or Utiel
72%
Draw or Utiel
53%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+
22%
Utiel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals
74%
La Nucía 2+ goals
38%
La Nucía 3+ goals
15%
Utiel 1+ goals
59%
Utiel 2+ goals
23%
Utiel 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)
65%
Utiel (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Utiel away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Utiel defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Utiel attack 0.98 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

La Nucía scores more
47%
level
28%
Utiel scores more
25%

La Nucía at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Nucía 0 – 2 Utiel

Utiel beat La Nucía 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Camilo Cano in La Nucía.